New Study on World`s Coral Reefs

Key word here is PREDICTIVE.

 

I'm not sure what you're implying. But I must insist that although fisheries models are based on mathematical models that have (more or less) variables built in for reproductive modes, relative fitness, and fecundity for discrete species, they have proven to be useful tools in predicting boom and bust cycles. These models we're especially useful in establishing quotas and repopulation matricies for wild atlantic cod after the mid 1980's crash.
Although fisheries models aren't always perfect, they shouldn't be discounted, in fact they usually under-estimate the challenges facing populations on the verge of collapse, and when it comes to setting limits and regulations, they're often marginalized in favor of capital gains. These predictions are based on sound mathematical/ecological principals. The short coming of these models is access to hard actuarial data for accounting how many are in a population to begin with.
The key word here is NEW study. Because these predicitons are nothing new, coral reefs are under threat from the fishing industry (for seafood in the eastern hemisphere), siltation costal run off, habitat degredation, eutrophication, global warming, and from many other aspects of human activities. Overall, the reef aquarium trade is generally considered to play a very small role in damaging coral reefs. In fact, the amount of exploitation suffered at the hands of our hobby is probably a wash considering all we do to educate and raise awareness about coral reef ecosystems among friends, family members and other visitors we have in our home. Thus embracing ecological concerns and conservation efforts is paramount to maintaining a healthy image among the masses.

 

Andy,
Well stated.  There is never enough information to make predictive models 100% accurate.  However, they can provide a lot of insight into complex systems like ecosystem or weather, especially in the hands of those who have spent a lifetime studying them.  Likewise, there is always a doom and gloom feeling with press releases like this-the reality of it is that these tools can help us focus resources and make informed decisions that will help to protect them. 
Regardless of predictive models, I think it's safe to say that many reefs are at risk from human-induced factors and many of these factors could probably be minimized with some careful planning. 
Matt

 

At the risk of being labeled a nay sayer, I must admit that I have little faith in the convictions of men. I'm aware of the numerous campaigns that have shown that populations can recover with protection, as the case with the whales. But fewer people are sympathetic to the dynamic needs and environmental challenges facing peligic fish, and reefs too. The world is a democracy after all, where any two morons can out-vote a genius. Few people understand these concerns, the problems, some even deny the issues, and the call for protection will require man power, money, and awareness.  
The problem in these cases is usually that by the time the call for action is heard, it's too little too late. Besides that, I feel that there is some intrinsic naievity in believing that we can solve all of the worlds problems, with thought, and technology. The fact is that it's not even reasonable to believe that ecosystems which took millions of years to establish, could be fixed over the course of a few measly years, or by our measly means.
Furthermore, the orchestration of these projects require money to enforce, and ultimately must relate to economic factors. Personally I'm sickened by the portrayal of economic factors touted in popular media as even being relevant to ecological issues, they're not (or rather shouldn't be).
Fortunately, I have faith that in time the earth will crush us all to dust, and new life will emerge throughout the seas. Despite feeling that our attempts to save reefs (and many other eco systems throughout the world) are ultimately meanial, I don't feel that it's a worthless endeavor. I feel it's important for the spirit to try, and it's important to make the world aware of  what it's losing.
I'm also fairly certain that we'll all be surprised to find corals and other animals that have found a way to adapt to new challeneges.